This summer is expected to see more top A-level grades awarded than in any year outside the pandemic-affected period, a trend largely attributed to the increasing popularity of mathematics and other quantitative subjects.
An education expert has predicted a small rise in the percentage of UK A-level entries achieving an A* or A grade, with boys anticipated to edge further ahead in A* grades.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, stated his belief that the increases in top grades awarded over the past two years could indicate a new trend is emerging.
In 2025, a total of 28.3% of entries were awarded either an A or A*, up from 27.8% in 2024, 27.2% in 2023 and above 25.4% in 2019.
Last year saw the highest proportion on record outside the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22 when the figure peaked at 44.8% in 2021.
Ahead of A-level results day, Professor Smithers has highlighted a "big swing" in recent years towards A-level subjects such as maths and economics.
In a new report, he noted these are "much higher yielders" of top grades, driven by job prospects that "have become more influential".
He added that mathematics in particular will significantly affect overall results.
Provisional data for England confirms maths as the most popular A-level choice this year – its 13th consecutive year at the top.
Economics has also entered the top five for the first time since Ofqual began publishing figures in 2014.
“These subjects are among the highest awarders of A* and A*/A grades,” Prof Smithers said.
“This points to a further rise in top grades.
“We cannot be sure, but it is my best guess.”
He added: “Job prospects look to have had more influence on A-level choices.
“Not surprising considering the difficulties young people are encountering.”
Last year, boys took a lead over girls in the top grades for the first time since 2018.
The proportion of boys’ entries awarded A or A* was 28.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the equivalent figure for girls’ entries (28.2%).
The proportion of boys’ entries awarded A* was 9.9%, 0.8 points higher than girls (9.1%).
Boys led girls at A* from 2012 through to 2019, before girls moved in front during the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22, after which boys reclaimed a lead in 2023.
Prof Smithers said boys and girls choose different subjects, with “many more” boys than girls taking A-level maths last year.
He suggested the continued growth of quantitative subjects “points to boys increasing their lead at A*” but the increase in provisional entries for psychology, biology and history will likely see girls’ percentage of the very top grade rise alongside.
He said the “advantage could go either way” for the combined A* and A grades.
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The professor also predicted Northern Ireland will continue to have the best results compared with England and Wales.
“In short, we could see in the 2026 results the small rises in top grades in the years since exams fully resumed continuing,” he concluded.
“The gap between boys and girls at A* is also likely to widen by a tenth of a percentage point or two. This would have occurred mainly as a result of increases in the entries to maths and other quantitative subjects.
“But none of this is set in stone. Although it is what the trends and provisional entries logically suggest, the grades awarded can be raised or lowered by adjusting their thresholds.
“The government, regulators, and exam boards may have their reasons for wanting the grades to remain the same or even fall, and they have the power to make this happen.”
A Department for Education spokesperson said: “Ahead of results day, young people and parents can be confident that their exam grades will be a true reflection of their abilities. This report is entirely speculative, as relevant data has not yet been released.
“Whatever young people want to do after they get their results, they should be proud of their efforts throughout their studies, and take the time to consider the full range of options available to them.
“Through our reforms to put technical and academic education on an equal footing, this Government will make sure every young person, wherever they live, is given the opportunity to choose the path that’s right for them.”
When is A-level results day 2026?
A-level results day is on Thursday, August 13.
Last year, top A-level grades rose to reach a record high outside of the Covid years, while a record number of students were accepted onto UK degree courses.
Ucas figures showed that, for 18-year-olds in the UK, 255,130 applicants were accepted onto university or college courses – up 4.7 per cent on 2024.
Overall, 82 per cent of UK 18-year-old applicants awaiting a decision on results day secured their first choice – which was the same proportion as the year before.