Korea posted a monthly current account surplus of $61.46 billion in September, surpassing $60 billion for the first time in history, with its third quarter surplus reaching $149.65 billion to exceed the $123.05 billion recorded for all of last year.
Korea’s monthly current account surplus surpassed $60 billion for the first time in history, fueled by a booming semiconductor industry, and the surplus reported in the third quarter alone exceeded last year’s annual total.
The performance has raised expectations that the annual surplus could approach $500 billion.
The country posted a current account surplus of $61.46 billion in September, surpassing the previous record of $49.73 billion, set in June, according to the Bank of Korea (BOK) on Thursday.
The third quarter surplus reached $149.65 billion, exceeding the $123.05 billion recorded for all of last year, and the cumulative surplus for the first nine months of this year also stood at $340.66 billion, more than four times the $83.89 billion recorded during the same period last year.
The semiconductor boom was the driving force behind the record-breaking numbers.
Semiconductor exports surged 260.3 percent on year to $60.5 billion in September on a customs-cleared basis, which accounts for half of Korea’s total exports of $121.05 billion.
Of the $55.15 billion increase in overall exports, semiconductors accounted for $43.71 billion, or 79.3 percent, underscoring the country’s growing reliance on the chip industry.
Semiconductor export prices jumped 182.1 percent on year in September, and export volume rose 30.5 percent, according to the BOK. The figures suggest that rising prices, rather than increased shipments, played a greater role in driving the surge in semiconductor exports.
Korea’s annual current account surplus could also reach $500 billion this year if the current trend continues.
To meet the BOK’s existing forecast of $450 billion, the country would need to record an average monthly surplus of $36.45 billion over the remaining three months of the year. Reaching $500 billion would require an average monthly surplus of $53.11 billion.
If the monthly surplus remains at September’s level, the annual total could reach $525.04 billion, based on a simple calculation.
“We expect October’s surplus to be around the second largest on record,” Kim Young-hwan, the director general of the BOK’s economic statistics department, said during a briefing on Thursday. “With year-end factors also coming into play in December, we could potentially see a record for the largest monthly surplus before the year is out.”
However, overseas dividend payments and a potential slowdown in AI investment could weigh on the surplus.
The semiconductor boom is also pushing up forecasts for Korea’s economic growth.
The average growth forecast for Korea this year among eight major foreign investment banks rose to 3.7 percent at the end of October, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, according to the Korea Center for International Finance.
The figure marked the seventh consecutive monthly upward revision since April, when the average forecast stood at 2.4 percent.
Korea’s GDP also grew 1 percent in the third quarter, far exceeding the BOK’s forecast of 0.3 percent.
The stronger-than-expected economic growth is seen as a factor supporting the possibility of another benchmark interest rate hike by the BOK later this month.
BY KIM WON [kim.jiye@joongang.co.kr]