Maersk containers in Algeciras, Spain, January 19, 2023. The Dane leads the world's top dividend payers. JON NAZCA / REUTERS

The global economy may be slowing down, but dividends paid out by multinational companies are not, according to a study by asset management firm Janus Henderson published on Wednesday, May 24. At $326.7 billion (€303 billion) in the first three months of the year, the total amount paid to shareholders rose by 12% year-on-year, a first-quarter record.

This double-digit growth is undoubtedly explained by the fact that dividends are based on 2022 profits, a good year for many listed companies, such as banks, which are helped by the rise in interest rates, and oil companies. But according to Janus Henderson, it also reflects the size of windfall dividends, totaling $28.8 billion between the beginning of January and the end of March, the highest for a quarter since 2014.

Among other items, this includes $11.7 billion distributed by shipping giant Maersk, after an extraordinary year for the sector's profitability, which put the Danish group in the lead in the world's top dividend payers, ahead of British mining giant BHP and Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis.

Another notable exception is the $6.3 billion paid by Volkswagen following the Porsche IPO. Continental Europe saw a 36% growth in dividends compared to the first three months of 2022, more than four times the growth in North America (+8.6%) and more than double the growth in Japan (+17.7%).

Strong corporate results

These exceptional dividends more than offset a 20% drop in payouts by the mining giants, which have begun to adjust shareholder returns to the downturn in commodity prices. Otherwise, the uptrend in dividends is likely to continue, Janus Henderson claimed, given the strength of the results of the major European companies. However, growth will slow.

While dividends are less volatile than profits as companies seek to smooth out the returns to investors – inflation, higher financing costs and weakening economic conditions in some regions will inevitably impact shareholder returns. "After two strong years, almost all of the easy gains from the post-pandemic rebound have been realized," noted Ben Lofthouse, head of the research team at Janus Henderson.

The momentum of the first quarter and the scale of the exceptional dividends have nevertheless led the management company to raise its forecast for the whole year. It now expects total dividends for 2023 of $1,640 billion (+5.2%).

Marc Angrand Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.