Turner, J. et al. Antarctic climate change and the environment. (2009).
Rignot, E. et al. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1095–1103 (2019).
Stokes, C. R. et al. Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change. Nature 608, 275 (2022).
Yang, T. et al. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the early 21st century. Remote Sens. 15, 1677 (2023).
Kingslake, J., Ely, J. C., Das, I. & Bell, R. E. Widespread movement of meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves. Nature 544, 349–352 (2017).
Stokes, C. R., Sanderson, J. E., Miles, B. W., Jamieson, S. S. & Leeson, A. A. Widespread distribution of supraglacial lakes around the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sci. Rep. 9, 13823 (2019).
Tuckett, P. A. et al. Continent-wide mapping shows increasing sensitivity of East Antarctica to meltwater ponding. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 775–783 (2025).
Mahagaonkar, A., Moholdt, G., Glaude, Q. & Schuler, T. V. Katabatic and foehn winds control the distribution of supraglacial lakes in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 666, 119482 (2025).
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Cox, T., Espinosa, Z. I. & Donohoe, A. The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave-Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022. Geophys. Res. Lett.s 50, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl104910 (2023).
Wille, J. D. et al. The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers. J. Clim. 37, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0175.1 (2024).
NASA. A Series of Rare Disturbances in the Stratosphere, <https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153258/a-series-of-rare-disturbances-in-the-stratosphere> (2024).
Zi, Y. et al. The sudden stratospheric warming events in the Antarctic in 2024. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2025GL115257 (2025).
Raphael, M. et al. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 106, S357–S400 (2025).
Song, J., Zhang, J., Du, S., Xu, M. & Zhao, S. Impact of early winter Antarctic sea ice reduction on Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 130, e2024JD041831 (2025).
NSIDC. 2024 Antarctic sea ice maximum extent finishes at second lowest, <https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/2024-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-extent-finishes-second-lowest> (2024).
González-Herrero, S., Barriopedro, D., Trigo, R. M., López-Bustins, J. A. & Oliva, M. Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula. Commun. Earth Environ. 3, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00450-5 (2022).
Zou, X. et al. Strong Warming Over the Antarctic Peninsula During Combined Atmospheric River and Foehn Events: Contribution of Shortwave Radiation and Turbulence. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 128, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd038138 (2023).
Gilbert, E., Orr, A., Renfrew, I. A., King, J. C. & Lachlan-Cope, T. A 20-Year Study of Melt Processes Over Larsen C Ice Shelf Using a High-Resolution Regional Atmospheric Model: 2. Drivers of Surface Melting. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres. 127, e2021JD036012 (2022).
Orr, A. et al. Characteristics of surface “melt potential” over Antarctic ice shelves based on regional atmospheric model simulations of summer air temperature extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19. J. Clim. 36, 3357–3383 (2023).
Gorodetskaya, I. V. et al. Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river. Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00529-6 (2023).
Wille, J. D. et al. Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 6, 178–192 (2025).
Bozkurt, D., Marín, J. C. & Barrett, B. S. Temperature and moisture transport during atmospheric blocking patterns around the Antarctic Peninsula. Weather Clim. Extremes 38, 100506 (2022).
Evangelista, H. et al. The June 2022 extreme warm event in central West Antarctica. Antarct. Sci. 35, 319–327 (2023).
Lu, H. et al. Extreme warm events in the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean: Compounding influence of atmospheric rivers and föhn conditions. Q. J. R. Meteorological Soc. 149, 3645–3668 (2023).
Pohl, B. et al. Relationship between weather regimes and atmospheric rivers in East Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 126, e2021JD035294 (2021).
Maclennan, M. L. et al. Climatology and surface impacts of atmospheric rivers on West Antarctica. Cryosphere 17, 865–881 (2023).
Nicolas, J. P. et al. January 2016 extensive summer melt in West Antarctica favoured by strong El Niño. Nat. Commun. 8, 15799 (2017).
Scott, R. C., Nicolas, J. P., Bromwich, D. H., Norris, J. R. & Lubin, D. Meteorological drivers and large-scale climate forcing of West Antarctic surface melt. J. Clim. 32, 665–684 (2019).
Terpstra, A., Gorodetskaya, I. V. & Sodemann, H. Linking sub-tropical evaporation and extreme precipitation over East Antarctica: An atmospheric river case study. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 126, e2020JD033617 (2021).
Li, X. C. et al. Tropical teleconnection impacts on Antarctic climate changes. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 680–698 (2021).
Man, K. et al. Century-long West Antarctic snow accumulation changes induced by tropical teleconnections. Sci. Adv. 11, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adr2821 (2025).
Turner, J. et al. Antarctic temperature variability and change from station data. Int. J. Climatol. 40, 2986–3007 (2020).
Clem, K. R. et al. Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 762–770 (2020).
Clem, K. R., Bozkurt, D., Kennett, D., King, J. C. & Turner, J. Central tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula. Nat. Commun. 13, 3906 (2022).
Fogt, R. L. & Bromwich, D. H. Decadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the high-latitude South Pacific governed by coupling with the southern annular mode. J. Clim. 19, 979–997 (2006).
Jones, J. M. et al. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 917–926 (2016).
Raphael, M. N. et al. THE AMUNDSEN SEA LOW Variability, Change, and Impact on Antarctic Climate. Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 97, 111–121 (2016).
Rahaman, W., Chatterjee, S., Ejaz, T. & Thamban, M. Increased influence of ENSO on Antarctic temperature since the Industrial Era. Sci. Rep. 9, 6006 (2019).
Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution working group I sixth Assess. Rep. intergovernmental panel Clim. change 2, 2391 (2021).
Siegert, M. J. et al. Antarctic extreme events. Front. Environ. Sci. 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1229283 (2023).
Gillett, N. P. et al. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nat. Geosci. 1, 750–754 (2008).
Dalaiden, Q., Schurer, A. P., Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Goosse, H. & Hegerl, G. C. West Antarctic surface climate changes since the mid-20th century driven by anthropogenic forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2022GL099543 (2022).
Wang, S. et al. Recent warming trends in Antarctica revealed by multiple reanalysis. Adv. Clim. Change Res. (2025).
Sciences, N. A. o. et al. Attribution of extreme weather events in the context of climate change. (National Academies Press, 2016).
Shepherd, T. G. et al. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change 151, 555–571 (2018).
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. & Shepherd, T. G. Attribution of climate extreme events. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 725–730 (2015).
Wang, J. et al. Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event. Sci. Adv.s 9, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi2714 (2023).
Williams, R. S. et al. Future Antarctic climate: Storylines of midlatitude jet strengthening and shift emergent from CMIP6. J. Clim. 37, 2157–2178 (2024).
Zhai, Z., Wang, Y., Wu, Q. & Hou, S. Record-breaking warm late-winter over Antarctica in 2024: The role of western Pacific warm pool and Pacific decadal oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2024GL114528 (2025).
Gehring, J. et al. Orographic flow influence on precipitation during an atmospheric river event at Davis, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 127, e2021JD035210 (2022).
Goosse, H. et al. Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions. Nat. Commun. 9, 1919 (2018).
Kittel, C. et al. Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves. Cryosphere 2021, 1–20 (2021).
Takaya, K. & Nakamura, H. A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 58, 608–627 (2001).
Li, X., Holland, D. M., Gerber, E. P. & Yoo, C. Rossby waves mediate impacts of tropical oceans on West Antarctic atmospheric circulation in austral winter. J. Clim. 28, 8151–8164 (2015).
Clem, K. R., Renwick, J. A. & McGregor, J. Autumn cooling of western East Antarctica linked to the tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres. 123, 89–107 (2018).
González-Herrero, S. et al. Impact attribution of the March 2022 Antarctic heatwave reveals amplification by cloud feedbacks and increased future meltwater. Commun. Earth Environ. (accepted).
Josey, S. A. et al. Record-low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storms. Nature 636, 635–639 (2024).
Ezber, Y., Bozkurt, D. & Ilicak, M. Modeling the Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Decline: Responses of Atmospheric Dynamics. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 130, e2024JD041558 (2025).
Lim, E. P. et al. Characteristics of Antarctic stratospheric variability during winter: A case study of the 2024 sudden stratospheric warming and its surface impacts. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 131, e2025JD045089 (2026).
Kuipers Munneke, P. et al. Intense winter surface melt on an Antarctic ice shelf. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 7615–7623 (2018).
Saba, G. K. et al. Winter and spring controls on the summer food web of the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula. Nat. Commun. 5, 4318 (2014).
Ropert-Coudert, Y. et al. A complete breeding failure in an Adélie penguin colony correlates with unusual and extreme environmental events. Ecography 38, 111–113 (2015).
Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorological Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020).
Marshall, G. J., Fogt, R. L., Turner, J. & Clem, K. R. Can current reanalyses accurately portray changes in Southern Annular Mode structure prior to 1979?. Clim. Dyn. 59, 3717–3740 (2022).
Kosaka, Y. et al. The JRA-3Q Reanalysis. J. Meteorological Soc. Jpn. 102, 49–109 (2024).
Gillett, N. P. et al. The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016).
Ciavarella, A. et al. Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for probabilistic event attribution. Weather Clim. Extremes 20, 9–32 (2018).
Christidis, N. et al. A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events. J. Clim. 26, 2756–2783 (2013).
Zhang, X. B. et al. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. -Clim. Change 2, 851–870 (2011).
Thompson, D. W. J., Baldwin, M. P. & Solomon, S. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 62, 708–715 (2005).
Efron, B. & Tibshirani, R. J. An introduction to the bootstrap. (Chapman and Hall/CRC, 1994).