French economy chills as growth stalls and inflation rises

Finance Minister Roland Lescure and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu address the press following a cabinet meeting on energy at the Hôtel de Matignon, Paris, on April 21, 2026. KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP

Though economists had forecast French growth at a rate of 0.2% to 0.3% for the first quarter, economic activity stalled at 0% in the first three months of the year, according to the initial estimate published Thursday, April 30, by France's national statistics bureau, INSEE. The flatline came after a 0.2% increase in the last quarter of 2025.

The sluggish start to the year already undermines the government's annual growth forecast of 0.9%. "That figure, which was still realistic a few weeks ago, now seems highly optimistic," Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, an economist at Rexecode, said.

According to INSEE's calculations, GDP would need to grow by 0.3% in each of the next three quarters to hit the government's target. At the end of the first three months of 2026, the carry-over effect – meaning the level reached if the next three quarters remain flat – stands at 0.5%. "There isn't much momentum for the current year," Morlet-Lavidalie said. Sylvain Bersinger, founder of the consulting firm BersingEco, estimated that "the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could shave 0.3 percentage points off growth for the year, resulting in a 0.6% increase in GDP."

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