That’s more or less right. Thanks to Trump’s war in Iran, the average price of a gallon of gas nationwide is nearly $4.50, up from about $3.15 a year ago, and indeed is hovering around $5 in some Upper Midwest and West Coast states. This comes after the president’s tariffs had already caused a massive spike in prices. Though some of those tariffs were invalidated by the Supreme Court, Trump continues to push new ones: Last week, he announced a 25 percent tax on cars and trucks from the European Union.
Trump is stuck in a quagmire in Iran, and he knows it. That’s why he announced a “Project Freedom” on Sunday to help the roughly 1,550 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf to pass through Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane that Iran effectively closed when the U.S. began bombing the country in late February. His “war” secretary, Pete Hegseth, claimed on Tuesday to have set up a “red, white, and blue” dome over the strait, but there’s no indication of a big uptick in maritime traffic. Two Navy destroyers pushed through the strait on Monday, and as of Tuesday only a few stranded ships had made it through—which might explain why Trump on Tuesday evening announced that he was pausing Project Freedom.
It’s no surprise, then, that a barrel of crude oil is still trading north of $100, compared to $60 a year ago. And even if the strait—through which about a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply passes—partially reopens and oil prices drop, it may be months before prices at the gas pump follow suit. As The New York Times explained in early April, a day after the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, “There’s a saying in the energy industry that explains how the cost of gasoline behaves: It goes up like a rocket, but down like a feather.” Plus, the strait’s closure isn’t the only supply problem: The war has caused the destruction of dozens of oil and gas facilities throughout the Middle East.