May 5, 2026
Workin’ 9-to-5… or 9-9-6. It’s a big week for labor prints, with JOLTS due today and the April jobs report out Friday. The fresh data will inform the Fed’s rate policy, which is currently as complicated as trying to get a refund on your Spirit Airlines points. In its decision to hold its target rate steady last week, the central bank had four dissents — the most in 34 years. Despite the tech layoff headlines, AI’s labor displacement isn’t yet showing up in the BLS data.
Low fire : In March, unemployment remained relatively low at 4.3%, and payrolls rose by a better-than-expected 178K. And last week, jobless claims fell to the lowest level since The Beatles released “Abbey Road” (September 1969).
: In March, unemployment remained relatively low at 4.3%, and payrolls rose by a better-than-expected 178K. And last week, jobless claims fell to the lowest level since The Beatles released “Abbey Road” (September 1969). Low hire : In February, the hires rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since pandemic-stricken April 2020. We’ll see if that changed in today’s March JOLTS report.
: In February, the hires rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since pandemic-stricken April 2020. We’ll see if that changed in today’s March JOLTS report. Low pay: March wages saw the lowest annual increase since May 2021, up just 3.5% from a year earlier. Notably, health insurance costs to employers have been rising faster than wages.
Where displacement is showing up… New Ramp data shows that businesses are increasingly shifting spend from freelancers to AI. 58.5% of businesses using freelancers in 2022 have stopped entirely as of Q1 2026, according to updated research from Ryan Stevens, Ramp’s director of applied science. That’s an eight-percentage-point jump in freelance abandonment from Q2 2025.
Stevens’ latest research shows the freelance-to-AI substitution has accelerated since the publishing of his January paper, which includes data up to Q3 2025. The latest numbers, updated to 2026:
The share of total spend going to labor marketplaces fell from 0.66% in Q4 2021 to 0.10% in Q1 2026.
from 0.66% in Q4 2021 to 0.10% in Q1 2026. AI model provider share for the same companies rose from zero to nearly 5.98% over the same period. It doubled just from Q3 2025 to Q1 2026.
The bottom line:
Leading indicators are often quiet… The big labor prints are noisy. “If you look at the aggregate workforce — nurses, chefs, construction workers — you aren’t going to see the impact for years. It’s too diluted,” said Ara Kharazian, Ramp’s lead economist. To see the future, Kharazian says, economists look at the people likely to be affected first. In labor’s case, it’s workers with the least friction to separation.
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