Photo courtesy of Youth Policy Toolbox
Sri Lanka is undergoing one of the most significant demographic transitions in its modern history. According to the 2024 Census conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics, women now make up the majority of the national population while the country is simultaneously facing declining birth rates, an ageing society and increasing economic pressure. These changes are not isolated developments. Together, they point toward what can be described as the feminisation of the population. The 2024 census recorded the population at approximately 21.76 million people. Of this, females account for around 51.7 percent of the population while males account for 48.3 percent. The national sex ratio stands at approximately 93 males for every 100 females. This imbalance has steadily widened over time due to higher female life expectancy, male migration for employment and differences in mortality rates.
At first glance, these numbers may appear to be only demographic statistics. However, they reveal a much deeper transformation that will affect the country’s economy, labour market, politics, healthcare system and social structure for decades to come. One of the most alarming trends highlighted by the census is the rapid ageing of the population. In 2012, citizens aged 65 and above accounted for approximately 7.9 percent of the population. By 2024, this figure had increased to 12.6 percent. Meanwhile, the share of children under the age of 15 declined from 25.2 percent in 2012 to 20.7 percent in 2024.The ageing index, which measures the number of elderly people for every 100 children, has increased dramatically to around 87 elderly persons per 100 children. This indicates that Sri Lanka is moving toward an age structure similar to countries such as Japan and South Korea where ageing populations have become major economic and social concerns.
The median age of the population has also increased to around 35 years, reflecting a society that is steadily growing older. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate has reportedly fallen to around 1.3 births per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability. This decline in births has several long-term implications. Fewer children today mean a smaller workforce in the future. Economists warn that shrinking working age populations can slow economic growth, reduce productivity and increase the dependency burden on younger generations. In practical terms, fewer workers will eventually be supporting a larger elderly population through taxation and public spending. These demographic changes are also deeply gendered. Women generally live longer than men, meaning that a large proportion of the ageing population will consist of elderly women. Many may live alone, lack financial independence or depend heavily on family support and state welfare systems. Elderly care is still largely handled within households rather than through formal institutions. Traditionally, women have carried the responsibility of caring for elderly parents, children and relatives.
However, social structures are changing rapidly. Family sizes are shrinking, urbanisation is increasing and migration continues to separate family members across regions and countries. As a result, the traditional caregiving system may no longer be sustainable. This raises urgent questions about social security. Pension and welfare systems were not designed for such a rapidly ageing population. Healthcare expenditure is expected to rise significantly as elderly populations require greater treatment for chronic illnesses such as diabetes, heart disease and hypertension. Demand for nursing care, retirement support and elderly housing facilities is also likely to increase. Yet the country’s economic crisis has already weakened public finances.
Without stronger social protection policies, many elderly citizens may face poverty and social isolation. This issue particularly affects women because they are more likely to outlive spouses and may have spent years outside formal employment due to unpaid caregiving responsibilities.
The feminisation of the population therefore also means the feminisation of ageing. At the same time, Sri Lanka faces another contradiction. Although women form the majority of the population and achieve high levels of educational attainment, female labour force participation remains comparatively low. According to recent labour statistics, only around 47 percent of working age people are economically active and female participation remains significantly below that of men. Many educated women remain outside the formal workforce because of childcare burdens, social expectations, workplace discrimination, transport insecurity and lack of flexible employment opportunities. This represents a major economic challenge.
The country is currently experiencing labour shortages in several sectors while also suffering from outward migration of skilled workers. Thousands of professionals, including doctors, engineers and IT specialists, have left the country in recent years seeking better economic opportunities abroad. At the same time, a large proportion of educated women remain economically under utilised within the country itself.
If Sri Lanka is to sustain economic growth amid population decline, increasing female participation in the workforce will become essential rather than optional. Studies across the world show that higher female employment contributes directly to GDP growth, household income stability and national productivity. Policies such as affordable childcare centres, flexible work arrangements, paid parental leave and safer public transport could significantly increase women’s economic participation. Expanding digital employment and support for female entrepreneurship may also help women enter sectors traditionally dominated by men.
The demographic shift also has important political implications. Although women make up the majority of the population, female political representation remains low by international standards. Women account for less than 10 percent of parliamentary representation despite decades of discussion about gender equality in governance. There has been some improvement at local government level following the introduction of a 25 percent quota for women in local authorities. This reform significantly increased female participation in municipal and provincial political institutions. However, representation at the national level remains limited.
This imbalance is increasingly difficult to justify in a country where women form the demographic majority. Greater female representation in politics could influence policy priorities in areas such as healthcare, childcare, education, domestic violence prevention, elderly care and labour protections. International research has frequently shown that women leaders often place stronger emphasis on social welfare and community-based development. As the population becomes increasingly female, political institutions may eventually face greater pressure to reflect this demographic reality. Another major concern linked to demographic change is migration.
Sri Lanka has experienced large scale emigration over the past several decades, particularly among young workers and professionals. Economic instability following the 2022 crisis accelerated this trend. Many young people now seek employment opportunities overseas due to rising living costs, limited wages and uncertainty about the future. This migration contributes further to population decline and workforce shortages. The departure of younger workers means fewer taxpayers supporting pension systems and fewer skilled workers contributing to economic development. Rural areas may face especially severe consequences as younger generations relocate to urban centres or leave the country entirely. Schools in some regions may eventually close due to declining student populations while healthcare systems struggle to support growing elderly communities. Despite these challenges, demographic transition does not necessarily mean national decline. Countries that successfully adapt to ageing populations often focus on improving productivity, investing in technology, strengthening social protection systems and increasing women’s economic participation. Sri Lanka still possesses strong human capital, high literacy rates and a well-educated female population that could become one of the country’s greatest economic strengths.
The feminisation of the population should therefore not be viewed simply as a demographic curiosity or social problem; it is a transformation that will redefine the nation’s future. The country now faces a critical choice. It can continue relying on outdated economic and social structures that limit women’s participation and fail to prepare for ageing or it can recognise demographic reality and adapt through inclusive policies, stronger social security systems and greater female representation in leadership and decision making. The 2024 Census is more than a collection of numbers; it is a warning about the future direction of society.
The Sri Lanka of the coming decades will likely be older, smaller and increasingly female. Whether this becomes a crisis or an opportunity will depend on how effectively the country responds today.