51% of Business Execs Say U.S. is Already in Recession

Some 51% of business executives say the U.S. economy is either already in recession or will be by the new year, according to the fourth-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. The survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other certified public accountants in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

Only 12% of business executives expressed optimism in the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, the lowest level since the throes of the Great Recession in early 2009. That compares to 18% last quarter and 41% a year ago. Inflation, rising interest rates and high energy costs were cited as key reasons for pessimism in the outlook.

One major overhang for finance teams in recent quarters is uncertainty. One-in-four survey takers say their organizations have increased their rounds of forecasting compared to what they were doing during the pandemic economy. Roughly another third say they are continuing a stepped-up level of forecasting from that time.