But despite a slowdown that could harm new businesses, many economists are optimistic that the rush to start businesses that began in 2020 will still translate into job growth, innovation and, ultimately, a more productive economy.
“A lot of these new businesses are continuing to grow and hire,” said Luke Pardue, an economist at Gusto, a small-business payroll and benefits platform. “These new businesses are really driving employment growth right now because they are continuing to grow and because they are ambitious in their future roles.”
The chief executive at a vacuum manufacturer in Price, Utah, that his father started in 1985, Spencer Loveless grew frustrated during the early months of the pandemic that supply chain issues were preventing him from getting parts from China. So he began using 3-D printers that his company had on hand to make his own parts. Companies that were similarly stuck in supply-chain snarls caught wind of what he was doing and began asking him to print items for them, too.
In November 2020, he started Merit3D, a 3-D printing company. The business originally had two employees, but it has been growing. Last year, he had 20 workers; this year, he aims to have 30 to 40.
His hiring plans don’t stop there. He wants Merit3D to eventually have 1,700 employees — helping to offset the loss of jobs at nearby power plants that will shut down in the years ahead.
Mr. Loveless said his goal for this year was to “bring as much revenue to the company as possible so that it can support itself as soon as possible.” He was relatively unmoved by the prospect of an economic downturn.
“I think the recession is going to hit harder than most people think,” he said. “How we prepare for that is we become the best at what we can do.”