February 1, 2023 Report Open Access
Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes
Engels, Anita; Marotzke, Jochem; Gresse, Eduardo; López-Rivera, Andrés; Pagnone, Anna; Wilkens, Jan
Researcher(s)
Aykut, Stefan
Bähring, Jill
Bassen, Alexander
Beer, Christian
Brovkin, Victor
Brüggemann, Michael
Busch, Timo
Commelin, Solange
d'Amico, Emilie
de Vrese, Philipp
Engels, Anita
Frisch, Thomas
Fröhlich, Christiane
Fünfgeld, Anna
Gresse, Eduardo
Guenther, Lars
Guillén Bolaños, Tania
Hanf, Franziska S.
Hawxwell, Tom
Held, Hermann
Hoffmann, Peter
Huang-Lachmann, Jo-Ting
Huch, Charlotte
Jantke, Kerstin
Jarke-Neuert, Johannes
Johnson, Matthew
Kleinen, Thomas
Kleinen-von Königslöw, Katharina
Knoblauch, Christian
Köhl, Michael
Kutzbach, Lars
Langendijk, Gaby S.
Li, Chao
López-Rivera, Andrés
Marotzke, Jochem
Mosuela, Cleovi
Müller, Franziska
Neuburger, Martina
Neumann, Manuel
Notz, Dirk
Pagnone, Anna
Pavenstädt, Christopher
Pein, Johannes
Perino, Grischa
Reveco Umaña, Cristóbal
Rödder, Simone
Rothe, Delf
Rötzel, Theresa
Scheffran, Jürgen
Schenuit, Felix
Schneider, Uwe
Schröder, Ursula
Schrum, Corinna
Seiffert, Rita
Sillmann, Jana
Soans, Erika
Struve, Svenja
Vogler, Anselm
Wickel, Martin
Wiener, Antje
Wilkens, Jan
Zengerling, Cathrin
Series
In the annual Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, CLICCS researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by combining multidisciplinary assessments of plausibility.
Current Issue
The purpose of this second Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook is to systematically analyze and assess the plausibility of certain well-defined climate futures based on present knowledge of social drivers and physical processes. In particular, we assess the plausibility of those climate futures that are envisioned by the 2015 Paris Agreement, namely holding global warming to well below 2°C and, if possible, to 1.5°C, relative to pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC 2015, Article 2 paragraph 1a). The world will have to reach a state of deep decarbonization by 2050 to be compliant with the 1.5°C goal. We therefore work with a climate future scenario that combines emissions and temperature goals.
Websites
www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html
www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de
Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – EXC 2037 'CLICCS - Climate, Climatic Change, and Society' – Project Number: 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg.