Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is facing stormy times at the weekend box office, where it could tumble 71.6 percent to $30 million-plus in its sophomore outing.
If these projections are right, the pic is in danger of suffering the worst second-weekend decline ever for a Hollywood superhero pic opening to $100 million or more at the domestic box office and one of the of worst for any movie, period.
No superhero films that are members of this club have fallen 70 percent or more; DC’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice comes the closest at 69.1 percent. Among Marvel Cinematic Universe titles, last year’s Thor: Love and Thunder saw Marvel’s biggest decline , or 67.7 percent. And among any film starting off with $100 million or more, the final Harry Potter pic, released in 2011, tops the list of biggest second-weekend drops with a decline of 72 percent, according to Comscore.
Ant-Man 3 opened to $120 million over the four-day Presidents Day weekend, including a franchise-best $105.5 million for the three days (the three-day number is used as the official comparison going forward). But poor word of mouth is clearly hurting the movie, along with competition from new offering Cocaine Bear, which is stealing away younger adults (and especially males). A historic storm on the West Coast also isn’t helping matters.
Universal’s Cocaine Bear — which even beat Ant-Man 3 on Friday with $8.7 million versus $8.3 million — is on course to open to an estimated $21.21 million, ahead of expectations. Cocaine Bear’s Friday gross of $8.7 million included $2 million in Thursday evening previews, so it should fall behind Ant-Man 3 sometime on Saturday. It opened overseas in 50 markets, where it is expected to bring in $5 million.
Directed by Elizabeth Banks, Cocaine Bear is a dark comedy about a drug smuggling operation that goes horribly awry when a 500-pound bear ingests a duffel bag of cocaine and goes on a killing rampage in a small Georgia town. Banks also produced the high-profile genre pic alongside Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Max Handelman, Brian Duffield and Aditya Sood. The feature earned a B- Cinemascore, which while low, generally is not a problem for horror-centric films.
In addition to Cocaine Bear, Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company’s Jesus Revolution is opening ahead of expectations. The faith-based feature boasts a glowing A+ Cinemascore and earned $6.95 million Friday, which includes an estimated $3.3 million from early screenings Wednesday and Thursday. Jesus Revolution is expected to come in at a strong No. 3 with as much as $14 million to $15 million. The 1970s-set feature is inspired by true events centers on a revivalist Christian movement that swept America.
Numbers will be updated Sunday morning.