AUSTIN — Texans could face brownouts if record demand this summer causes extreme scenarios, the state’s power grid operator is forecasting.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said Wednesday it’s projecting peak demand for the summer at 82,739 megawatts and that the system has enough generating capacity to meet that seasonal demand.
But that came with a caveat: Extreme weather could test the system, according to ERCOT’s highest risk scenario. Record demand during such a scenario could trigger shortfalls if there are a significant number of unplanned power-plant breakdowns and little power available from wind turbines and solar farms.
BUILDING PLANTS: Texas Senate pushes to add natural gas power plants, curb growth of renewables
The report and what happens through the summer could have major political implications as state lawmakers debate numerous proposals that could increase residents’ electric bills, use taxpayer dollars to build fossil fuel plants to boost reliability or both.
The shaky grid was on display during last year’s record-hot summer as demand broke records 11 times with demand that topped out near 80,000 megawatts. That included several close calls that led ERCOT and local utility officials to call for customers to conserve energy as power reserves plummeted.
That came after ERCOT, in its 2022 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy demand report, undershot the level peak demand would eventually reach. It had estimated peak demand of 77,317 megawatts.
By mid-June, record heat had pushed demand to an all-time record. Five weeks later, demand on the Texas grid topped 80,000 megawatts for the first time in history.
Wednesday, ERCOT said more than 97,000 megawatts of capacity is expected to be available during this summer's peak for the grid, which serves more than 26 million customers.
Driving demand
Electricity use in Texas has been rising along with economic growth, an influx of people and a surge in energy-intensive Bitcoin mining. Texas has been working to make its grid more robust during extreme weather since a deadly winter storm in 2021 crippled the system. But the network was further tested last summer when intense heat triggered soaring consumption.
Most of Texas has a 50 percent to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures from May to July, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
IN THE COLD: ‘Ready to go’: CPS says it’s ready to keep the lights — and heat — on ahead of expected mild winter
For more than a decade, renewable energy has been thought of as a low-cost alternative for the Texas grid. But as the net capacity of dispatchable energy — coal, natural gas and nuclear power — has stagnated in the state for the past 15 years as the state’s population and economy have surged, wind and solar is no longer a bonus but required to keep the lights on.
“We’re now getting to a place where the peak demands require the availability of renewables in order to meet the energy needs of Texans, and that is going to continue to grow,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said in February.
A major push is underway in the Texas Senate to subsidize natural gas power plants in particular. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who presides over the chamber, said he won’t let legislators go home until they can guarantee new steel in the ground.
Subsidizing power
On Tuesday, Sen. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, issued a new proposal for a program that would use taxpayer dollars to finance and subsidize new natural gas power. The bill would create a no interest loan program for private companies to build new natural gas fired plants and then pay them roughly 10 percent of construction costs if construction begins before December 2024 and is putting power on the grid within three years.
IN SAN ANTONIO: CPS approves plan to shut coal-fired plants, turns eye toward rate increases to make it reality
It’s the senator’s second proposal to use taxpayer money to put new steel in the ground for power plants. The Senate passed another bill he authored that would use at least $10 billion of taxpayer money to build a fleet of natural gas plants to be used as a “backup generator” for the power grid.
Texas’ largest electricity generator operators have opposed the plan as disruptive and have threatened to scrap plans for new natural gas plants if Schwertner’s bill becomes law. They are also lining up against another Schwertner bill that would place a market cap on the market design they prefer, which is the performance credit mechanism that was adopted by the Public Utility Commission in January.
The “backup generator” plan appears to have fizzled out in the Texas House, where Corpus Christi Rep. Todd Hunter has yet to hold a hearing on the Senate bill. Hunter and his office spokesman have not returned messages seeking comment on the bill’s fate.