21 mega-trends that will shape life and business after the pandemic

Post-pandemic Mega-trends

21 mega-trends that will shape life and business after the pandemic

Written By Tim Joshi

The best crystal balls are made out of 1’s and 0’s zipping around the world and settling in databases as they are gently stirred and analyzed by nerds. As they do, the future starts to appear as reflections on their dusty spectacles. No one pair of glasses has the whole picture… so this article is about the 21 most significant trends the data points out.

History tells us that pandemics create lasting change. So what can we expect over the coming years? What is good data to look at, and what can we interpret from the data? Most importantly, what can we do to position ourselves for the years ahead?

What Past Pandemics Tell Us

Before we get into the data on the effects of COVID-19, we need to see the patterns in past pandemics. We need to observe what went back to normal then and what changes shaped the future and world history. We will likely see similar patterns post-2021.

GDP’s ups & downs

Let's start with the big picture. History tells us that although there is a sharp drop in GDP during a pandemic, post-pandemic and post-shock economies tend to perform well. The data shows that economies tend to perform above average after pandemics and shocks similar to COVID-19. Further, the effects last a VERY long time… 20 years or more.

Let’s start by analyzing this image below from a research paper called “GDP Effects of Pandemics: A Historical Perspective” by Maciej Stefański.

The image above compares GDP tendency post-pandemic to baseline GDP (or expected GDP if the pandemic had not occurred) based on historical data. GDP growth averages HIGHER after pandemics for a very long time. Why is it so!? It turns out that there are some very good reasons for this and I will get to them soon!

First, let's look at the economic shock after-effects using a different data set - using USA GDP data post-recessions (and economic shocks). Mckinsey provides a summary “History suggests that there are essentially two types of economic expansions after recession: those that see GDP grow by 10 to 20 percent cumulatively in postcrisis years, and those that see 30 to 50 percent cumulative growth.” They are talking about how much GDP increases from the bottom of a recession to the next economic peak. They have summarised it for us in the following graph (note the grey bars are recession years).

Using both data sets, we can note that statistically, the shock and difficulty caused by COVID-19 is likely followed by a period of growth. When we look into the details of post-shock recoveries, we find that a COVID-19 shock is likely to result in high economic growth for many countries. Let’s look further...

Expected changes to come

What changes will occur after the pandemic and how will your life change? Again, history gives us a broad view, and current data can fine-tune the perspective.

History tells us 3 things:

Efficiency and profit trends in crisis endure and accelerate over time (for example digitization and automation). There is ideological and behavioral migration due to new choices and experiences that emerged due to the pandemic (example: increased hygiene and focus on health). There are clashes in ideology, and the effects of increasing economic disparity will take their toll over the short term - 1 to 3 years (example: income distribution and vaccination debates).

Pandemic Stages

There are 3 main stages for a pandemic. Data from each stage will predict the next.

Stage 1: Pandemic Shock

There is a rapid change in behavior with “survival and thrival” based innovation. We have already witnessed this.

Businesses well-positioned for the lockdowns saw surging profits while others went through business hell. All of them went through a shock that caused them to rethink many critical parts of their business. Many companies had to get leaner and more efficient through hard times, while others did emergency drills to grow and expand at a rapid rate.

Almost everyone gained experience in working remotely… employees, managers, and CEO’s. There are now countless technical innovations and behavioral experiences percolating in the economy.

Stage 2: Rebound and Reversion

There is a movement towards pre-pandemic behavior and operation. Still, the rebounds, echoes, and new trends will leave us with a new trajectory in many areas. In some areas, there will be an overshoot (things dearly missed) and then settlement at a new level. For example, people may be itching to travel abroad again if conditions allow it.

There is a backlog in many areas. For example, for elective surgeries all around the world, this will give rise to the increased purchase of robotic surgery equipment, which will decrease the time and cost of surgeries, which could lead to more elective surgeries in the long run.

Stage 3: Innovative Growth

When we look into the details, pandemics tend to create broad pressure on populations, creating significant innovation. The innovation can be technical or behavioral.

For example, after the bubonic plague in Europe in the 14th century, there were large labor shortages… Innovations like the printing press spread rapidly. It was difficult to get scribes, and written text was in high demand. There was a great deal of opportunity for surviving laborers - businesses were forced to innovate and automate to survive - this innovation created a snowball effect that lasted decades. Machines that replaced or reduced labour saw high demand.

We are seeing similarities already taking shape in the COVID-19 pandemic. There has been a tremendous shift to adopt digital technology in more areas and on a larger scale. Areas that have value for businesses or individuals have seen accelerated adoption, further innovation will follow.

Profitable business practices, efficiencies, and areas of lasting demand growth (things people like) will see innovation due to the financial opportunities they create. This will include more digital products, work-from-home arrangements, and increased focus on personal health and well-being. The economy will see more innovation in the coming years.

The Mega-trends That Will Impact Our Lives After The Pandemic

Here are the big impacts on the major spheres of human life and business based on the principles outlined above and data from the pandemic. Details after the image.

Work Trends

In a Canadian study, 59% of young employees plan significant changes in work and career post-pandemic. Other data I have reviewed is suggesting similar attitudes around the world.

1. Remote working

Zoom calls exploded during the pandemic. Zoom saw a 326% growth in revenue in 2020 and an astonishing 20x increase in Zoom meetings.

In a recent Harris Poll (May 2021), 75% of Americans prefer full-time or hybrid work arrangements. Only 25% want to work full-time from the office. With real estate savings available to employers and pressures from talent migration, there is value in considering remote management models.

2. Training and Well-being

The biggest desires sought are in “micro” education and work-life balance.

73% of employees want employers to help them learn and develop new skills through bite-size courses. Further, they expect help beyond work skills and into the well-being domain (like mental wellness, with 42% reporting declines through the pandemic). This has become extremely affordable to employers (through online learning marketplaces), so this demand will be met.

The demand for work-life balance is higher than ever post-pandemic. Many managers will be caught off guard as they lose talent to better-positioned organizations. By positioning, I mean companies that produce a higher return on human capital and those better at managing a remote workforce. There is a good likelihood that remote team management will become a recognized and sought after leadership skill post-pandemic.

3. Talent Migration

Some managers and organizations have figured out how to keep teams innovating and productive remotely, and more will follow. This is still early going. In the future, we will see hyper innovative and effective remote teams compared to what we are seeing now.

Currently, employers want more office time than employees do. Studies from Gartner and McKinsey are still showing a considerable gap. But the pandemic has narrowed the gap significantly; more executives are opening up to remote staffing. Many employees plan to shop for a job that allows them to work remotely if they are called back into the office full time.

Gallup polls track employee engagement on a month-by-month basis. They reported a 2 to 3.9% rise in employee engagement levels in the US and Canada during the pandemic. Working remotely does not mean less engagement. Place your bets on companies with a high return on human capital and those better at managing remote workforces. Talent will migrate to these organizations.

4. Skills Supply and Demand

There will be serious and unsettling shifts in the employment landscape. The digital divide will grow as many will be left behind. Countries that see too much of this will experience social unrest. It is unlikely that everyone will re-educate and retool fast enough or with enough support.

For example, demand for digital marketing is exploding. Many digital marketing activities are very labor-intensive. Young freelancers from Bangladesh and Pakistan are offering these services through online platforms. This work goes there on a price-performance basis.

Watch for digital marketing agencies to pop up in Southeast Asia in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. Most of these will become service organizations for digital marketing agencies in the USA, China, and Europe. The pattern will be similar to the growth of customer service (call centers) and IT services in India over the last few decades.

Shopping and Consumption

The creation of online trust becomes the central theme in entrepreneurship and the product life cycle.

5. Digital Products and Shopping

Development of digital products or creating partially digital products accelerated dramatically during the pandemic.

Mckinsey’s research indicates that the percentage share of digital or partially digital products has reached 55% of the overall global products basket sold as of July 2021. This represents 7 years of transformation that took place in 18 months compared to the pre-pandemic trend. The most dramatic shifts took place in Asian markets that were lagging pre-pandemic.

Online shopping leaped forward several years in adoption, and mobile commerce (using the phone for e-commerce) surged. This will be a slowing or pull-back post-pandemic but after this, the majority of growth in shopping transactions will occur in the e-commerce space.

6. Digital Trust

Trusted brands won big during the pandemic. Online buyers cannot experience the product before they buy it (or, if they can, must waste time doing it); internet scams are a constant threat, so brand trust becomes very important. Look for trust development to proceed or parallel product and business development.

It is not enough to develop a product; trust must be developed in conjunction with the product. This is especially important for new brands and the new entrepreneurial journey. Trends in digital marketing are showing significant signs of this.

More and more free samples are being shipped to influencers. Unboxing Youtube videos are popular, and companies ship free products before launches to people with unboxing channels on youtube.

Business blogging has taken off. Brand ambassadors with digital followings are being hired to represent companies. Affiliate (partner) marketing has become very common.

If you listen to Jeff Bezos carefully, you will realize that Amazon is essentially a trust system for decision-making attached to an excellent delivery system. Do you ever find yourself checking Amazon reviews before buying a product that you are physically holding in your hand in a store? I am sure I am not the only one.

Recently I have been doing research on Google’s search algorithm, and guess what? At its core, it is a trust system! Trust systems will continue to evolve on the web. Innovation in this area will be as important as product innovation.

Home Life

We will both embrace and rebound from the “Nesting” lifestyles caused by COVID-19. A Deloitte survey forecasts people's intentions post-COVID: the highest “nesting” intention is to continue cooking more at home and using streaming services for entertainment and learning (50% of people).

I have lived in 3 different environments during the pandemic: large home, small home, and tiny apartment. I can tell you that post-pandemic behavior will be different in each type of accommodation. The smaller the dwelling, the more people will want to be out and about.

Overall there will be an increase in “nesting” compared to pre-pandemic. Business and design activity gives us insights into what this might look like. For example, furniture designers are focusing on mobile and convertible furniture (such as adding wheels) for apartment furniture so living spaces can be quickly reconfigured - living rooms become workout spaces in seconds.

Architects are designing apartments for more nesting features like office nooks, more storage, and bigger balconies. Apartment and home architects are also designing to receive delivery from online shopping more securely and conveniently.

Home architects are designing for having “quarantine guests”; this means having separate entrances and bathrooms for guest accommodations. Home offices are now very high in the design priority of new homes.

7. Learning

Learning online is up 900% since 2000 and is expected to double in the next 5 years. Online courses are replacing books, audiobooks, and classrooms. Udemy, an online course marketplace, saw over 400% growth during the pandemic.

73% of employees want online learning and 93.9% of companies plan to provide it for their employees even though only 40% currently offer it. Individuals are demanding career and well-being learning from employers while seeking passions and well-being learning on their own.

8. Play and entertainment

Entertainment at home has grown significantly. I heard Disney Plus accomplished in 1 year what took Netflix 7 years because of the pandemic. The majority of customers are not expected to leave post-pandemic. Disney Plus will likely see continued growth. 50% of people from a recent survey intend to maintain or increase streaming services post-pandemic. Video games are rocking too.

9. Communication and information

Pretty much everyone's grandmother knows how to connect online and surf the web now. Sales of physical magazines plunged, and consumption of digital magazines rose. These are more efficient exchanges and will endure. These online information exchanges, however, are surprisingly complex. Expect many new careers, products, and revenue strategies to be created by this complexity.

Travel and Mobility

Lockdowns have ingrained new behaviors and created pent-up demand. New patterns will emerge as the pandemic recedes.

10. Personal transportation

Personal transportation decreased during the pandemic. Fewer drives to the office, relatives, doctors, friends, and road trips. Fewer work-related travel flights and hotel stays. A good portion of this reduction is highly enjoyed and therefore will not come back. The good old road trip... now that’s coming back!

11. International tourism

International tourism decreased while domestic travel increased on a relative basis during the pandemic. While there will be a rebound - pressure to stay domestic continues. Domestic travel will rule in 2021 and into 2022. Beyond this, it will depend on policies.

Testing and quarantine, fear of getting sick while traveling, the threat of variants, fear of getting stuck due to policy shifts… Travelers broadly seek fun, freedom, adventure, and convenience when they travel. Pressure on these core desires will remain high for a while as pent-up demand for these things will grow.

The global international tourism market plummeted 73% in 2020, while Mexico experienced a 46% decline. Mexico doesn’t require vaccines to enter nor quarantine upon arrival. Countries with favorable policies (like Mexico) will grab pent-up demand and gain international tourism market share.

Digitally trusted brands like the Marriott and the Hilton are anticipating this. The Marriot has done 5 property deals in Mexico and the Hilton has done 2. This will be a situation of the right trust brand waiting in the right country for people to start traveling again.

Health and Well-being

Chronic health conditions have become associated with loss of freedom, socializing, and mental wellbeing (increased fear). I read a recent CDC (US Centre for Disease Control) study showing 94% of Covid hospitalizations had 1 or more underlying health issues. Here is the chart for the CDC study showing the percentage of health issues found in hospitalized Covid patients.

12. Food

People are pretty aware that the healthier you are, the better your body will deal with COVID-19, and now any bacteria or virus so the shift to organic foods and supplements is pronounced. We are currently seeing growth in health-related activities everywhere.

According to food business news, organic meat sales jumped 25% in 2020 while organic foods as a whole grew a record 12.5% (even though suppressed heavily by rising prices).

Supplement sales for herbs grew, some areas really jumped - ashwagandha products grew 117%, and cider vinegar products grew by 181%. A very high percent of the population intends to eat more fresh foods (38%) and cook at home (50%) after the pandemic than they did pre-pandemic (Deloitte Survey).

13. Exercise

Peloton is a company that excels at selling motivation in the home. Trainers scream at you online, and with everyone stuck at home, they saw 189% growth. Many miss the gyms and studios, so there will be a rebound back to them. However, it is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. Many will choose outdoor pursuits, fitness on demand, and at-home exercise options they have become accustomed to during the pandemic.

14. Outdoor Activities

Outdoor activity equipment sales are up very high - around 100% in tents and hydration flasks for hiking. Parking spots and picnic spots were taken up fast every day in the Banff, Canada area in 2020 and the trend continues in 2021. E-bikes are hard to find in Switzerland this spring, a close friend tells me.

Outdoors activities have replaced many urban indoor activities. This will likely affect urban businesses, with post- COVID sales returning slower than some may expect after an initial rebound.

The use of e-bikes, e-scooters, and other new outdoor pursuits have seen accelerated adoption - the time needed to reach mass adoption has been shortened by the pandemic.

15. Telemedicine and E-pharmacy

My mother often has had telephone appointments with her doctor. Often there is no need to go in for a personal visit, so it makes you wonder why we ever did. Why not just have Zoom calls and telephone calls?

16. Mental Well-being

The psychological toll of the pandemic has been significant. Globally, 42% of people have reported a decline in mental health.

Sales of coping drugs are up, clinical appointments with mental healthcare professionals are up. Nearly all of us became acutely aware of our own mental states, started self-monitoring, and made sure we did things to stay positive.

In the long term, this will be a good thing as more people remain aware of good mental hygiene and self-care. People will seek happiness and mental well-being as they shake off pandemic sadness. Longer-term, the experience of going in and coming out of a decline in mental health will cause people to more actively manage their mental well-being.

The Business Landscape

I have managed many departmental transformations for Fortune 500 companies and supported at least a dozen other executives in doing the same. There is no doubt in my mind that many changes and innovations forced by the pandemic will spread, grow, and be built upon post-pandemic.

17. New Shoots

COVID will launch a new generation of entrepreneurs. The UK saw a 30% rise in registrations for new businesses in Q4 2020. The USA saw new business applications double in Q3 2020 over 2019. This pattern is seen in every country that I looked into (Americas, Europe, and BRICK nations).

Further, a large percentage of small businesses that kept going through the pandemic lost sales. It is safe to assume the owners have been thinking hard about increasing revenue and making up for losses post-pandemic. Almost all are making changes to get leaner and maximize revenues.

Innovation and new ways of doing business will be the theme. Digitization, automation, and emerging trends are in the thoughts of entrepreneurs. Reskilling in these areas is occurring at breakneck speeds both from the rewards it offers and the desperation created for many entrepreneurs. Expect a new breed of business leaders to emerge post-pandemic that will hone their skills and make waves over the next decade.

18. Automation

Most businesses sought increased automation through the pandemic and will continue this trend post-pandemic. This trend will continue almost everywhere you look. Examples include restaurants automated ordering for takeout. Use of keyless entry and contact-free check-in is the norm now with Airb&b rentals. A few major hotel chains are trying robot room service for contactless delivery.

Contactless car rental will grow - services like walking up to a rental car and just driving it after registering and paying with an app are going to grow - it’s a better customer experience. The use of contactless payment systems is going to be embraced faster now. It is efficient for companies, and it became a strong consumer preference during the pandemic.

Automation saves companies money and time, and consumer preference has shifted from in-person to contactless service. Look for automation is going to become an area of high competition and growth.

19. Supply Chain

Supply chain disruptions were one of the top 3 reasons for “unnecessary” lost sales in 2020. Most supply chain executives are planning continued efforts to create redundancy and resiliency in their business flows. Supply chain weaknesses were also seen as a threat to national security, sovereignty, and pandemic recovery by many countries (think protective equipment, basic necessity shortages, defense electronic components, and vaccines).

Also, the economic decoupling between China and the USA has been accelerated by the pandemic. Currently, there are rolling disruptions in business as countries see Covid waves hitting at different times. This means new business challenges and opportunities in almost all countries from shifting supply chains.

20. Business and Personal Investing Will Shift

Data analysis for post-pandemic investing deserves its own research project. We see investing entering unprecedented conditions with recent: decoupling of GDP with stock market performance; increasing impact of politics on trade; new trends in business. A deep look at underlying data is warranted. Follow me on LinkedIn and I’ll share any insights that come my way.

21. The Giant Pile of “DUDI”

Debt, Unrest, Displacement, Inflation. Nobody likes these things… they are sh*t. The pandemic has created and will continue to create a lot of DUDI... politicians, governments, individuals, and interest groups (basically everyone) will respond to the DUDI with a spectrum of thinking - good, bad, and ugly. It’s going to happen; swallow that bitter pill and move on.

First, debt, lowering of interest rates, and monetary easing (printing money) are considered a necessary evil given the situation. Too many forced and unnecessary bankruptcies happening all at once combined with a seizing up of the banking system is the alternative. Regardless of opinion on the matter, we are where we are. This, combined with supply chain disruptions gives rise to inflation.

At the moment, both (debt and inflation) are significant issues that each country will attempt to resolve based on its own capability. Current debt and inflation are opposite sides of the same problem - displacement. They were seen as necessary to keep business alive and the unemployed people fed through the pandemic (those displaced).

Displacement of individuals and businesses that found themselves in unfortunate positions in the pandemic is the central economic issue that needs to be resolved. We need to rebuild and reskill as fast as possible. Sadly, weak businesses that counter post-pandemic trends will die… loans to these businesses is bad debt.

People displaced without income need to be kept physically and mentally healthy, reskilled, and employed as fast as possible. Societies that leave these individuals by the wayside will see marked increases in violence, social unrest, business disruption, anger towards governments, and lashing out towards the rich and their businesses.

There is higher GDP waiting on the other side of DUDI. The most valuable thing that individuals, organizations, and governments can do is minimize displacement, reskill, and rebuild as fast as possible.

WHAT IS BEST FOR YOU LOOKING FORWARD!

Knowledge is empowering, so I give you this lens to view opportunities among the chaos that we are bombarded with each day. What can really hinder your future success is being paralyzed in fear, getting sucked into debates, and being demoralized by change and uncertainty.

After a COVID-19 style pandemic, the underlying economics are favorable - accepting, anticipating, and embracing change is the key for individuals and businesses.

So here are my recommendations to you for a successful future:

Watch trends with an optimistic mindset. History shows that there will be a few decades of opportunity ahead as the crisis fades. Pressures created by the pandemic will lead to innovation, choices, and growth overall. Be a part of it by observing these trends and taking action now. Get your head out of negative space and keep it out! What you should be debating is which opportunities are best for you. Keep the politicians, negative news, opinionated debaters out of your head. Develop the skills and knowledge that are going to help you in the future. Embrace change and let the trends show you the way. Uphold your notion of good as you create value. Be equal in success and failure and strive to create value for others. You will get swept up in the current of trust and value, and you will ride this into a bright future. Take care of your health and vitality. The more active your body and mind are, the more likely it is that you will embrace opportunities and make a better life with them. One success feeds another, and success in health feeds them all.

So let me leave you with something extraordinary. My wife and I had quite the experience building a new style of online course. We envisioned something richer than reading a book, more life-changing than watching a video or taking a standard course.

To do it right, we had to create informative self-assessments for people to learn about themselves, and interactive workshops to quickly transition from theory to practical application. With this, we believe we were successful in taking the learning experience into new territory.

It is about Achieving Goals Using Less Willpower. So if you want to experience the latest in achieving goals while using less willpower - checking it out! It has the highest rating on Udemy (4.95)! Message me about your experience!

...and don’t forget to share this Post!

Download This Article

Key referenced articles:

GDP Effects of Pandemics: A Historical Perspective Maciej Stefański

https://ssl-kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/Documents/WorkingPapersKAE/WPKAE_2020_057.pdf

CDC Study on COVID-19 Hospitalisations and Comorbidities can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/21_0123.htm

Gallup Poll Findings on Employee Engagement in The USA

https://www.gallup.com/workplace/330017/employee-engagement-rises-following-wild-2020.aspx

Post-Covid Article by Deloitte

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-consumer-spending-after-covid.html

Acceleration of Digitization Article by Mckinsey

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-covid-19-has-pushed-companies-over-the-technology-tipping-point-and-transformed-business-forever

Food Business News https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/18699-organic-food-sales-hit-record-high-in-2020