Pedestrian and pedalcyclist fatalities in the United States have been rising in recent years even as fatalities for motorists has declined or remained relatively flat (Coleman & Mizenko, 2018). Fatalities among motorists, pedestrians, and pedalcyclists alike were on the decline in the United States starting around 1980. But in 2009 the data trend lines diverged as pedestrian and pedalcyclist fatalities began rising (Arias et al., 2021). In fact, from 2010 to 2019 pedestrian fatalities increased by 46% to 6,301 deaths in 2019 (GHSA, 2021). Further, in 2016, which corresponds to this study’s timeframe, 4,074 children were killed in motor-vehicle crashes in the United States – making crashes the number one killer of American children (Cunningham et al., 2018).
The 1980’s saw the production and sales volume of large motor vehicles begin to command an increasing share of the U.S. automobile market (Fig. 1). Large vehicles are commonly considered those classified as light trucks: pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans/minivans – a consideration also applied here. But is the growing American predilection for large vehicles associated with increased pedestrian and pedalcyclist fatalities? By one estimate, the external cost of one person choosing to drive one large motor vehicle rather than a passenger car on pedestrian death risk alone is $75, $98, and $114 per year for each SUV, pickup truck, and van/minivan, respectively (Tyndall, 2021). Still, a growing number of Americans are choosing large motor vehicles over the traditional passenger car. Fig. 1 depicts the diminishing share of car production over the past decades as it gave way to the growing “Truck SUV,” “Car SUV,” and “Pickup” categories (EPA, 2021). In fact, passenger car sales in the United States dropped at an annual rate of 2.4% from 2008 to 2018 alone, while pickup truck sales increased at an annual rate of 6.4% (Davis & Boundy, 2020). In 2008 light trucks were about 40% of light vehicles produced, in 2018 they were nearly half (Ibid).
Larger vehicles not only produce excess carbon emissions but may also pose a greater threat to pedestrian and pedalcyclist safety. Tyndall (2021) uses pedestrian fatality data from across the United States to estimate that a 100 kg increase in average motor-vehicle weight correlates with a 2.4% increase in pedestrian fatalities for a median fatality rate region. He further finds that converting 10% of a regional vehicle fleet from cars to light trucks correlates with a 3.6% increase in fatal pedestrian crashes (Ibid). Desapriya et al. (2010) estimate in their meta-analysis that pedestrians struck by a pickup truck were 50% more likely to be killed compared to those struck by a passenger car. Roudsari et al. (2004) find that those hit by light trucks (including SUVs, vans/minivans, and pickup trucks) had higher rates of severe brain injury (33%) relative to those hit by cars. In their review of the pedestrian safety literature, Doggett et al. (2018) find that unreported pedestrian and pedalcyclist crashes underestimate injuries by 21%. They find that crashes are more likely to go unreported if the pedestrian or pedalcyclist is: less likely to receive an insurance payout, Black, or male. Crashes that happened on a state road, Y-intersection, or divided highway were also less likely to be reported. These studies imply that the true scope of pedestrian and pedalcyclist crashes is likely worse than can be estimated by relying only on crash databases. What we do know by relying on crash databases is that pedestrian and pedalcyclist crashes disproportionately affect poor and minority communities, perhaps to a greater degree than previously believed (GHSA, 2021). Further, Braun et al. (2021) find that the health risks associated with cycling in Los Angeles (pollution, injury, fatality) are disproportionately high among communities of lower income, lower educational attainment, and greater proportions of racial/ethnic minorities.
There is still much to learn. This paper aims to contribute by utilizing uncommon government agency access to crash and hospital records to investigate those who are disproportionately affected by pedestrian and pedalcyclist crashes – especially those most vulnerable among us.